Global Risks Forecast Issue 56 | 12 June 2008

Fortnightly analysis and forecasts of emerging trends and issues across the global risks spectrum - including an archive of over 1000 articles

Maplecroft indices and analysis: political violence risk, societal risk and human rights, political risk and sub-national climate change risk - contact us

Issue 56 | 12 June 2008 – 25 June 2008

World map showing event locations and trends

Natural hazards
Avian influenza update

Increasing risk
Stable risk
Decreasing risk

Short term risk
Medium term risk
Long term risk

Operational risk
Strategic risk
Operational and strategic risk

Government risk	Zimbabwe	Mining minister: govt. may redistribute unexploited mining licences held by foreign firms
Government risk	US	GAO backs Boeing's challenge to award of US$40bn USAF refuelling contract to Northrop-EADS

Geopolitics	Peru	Sixty police held hostage during protest at Southern Copper over tax revenue redistribution
Geopolitics	Belgium	Mandelson seeks "energy bargain" with Russia, though wider geopolitical priorities at stake

Emerging powers	US	Beijing/Washington to begin talks on bilateral investment treaty first proposed in 2006
Emerging powers	Japan	Tokyo/Beijing agree on development of East China Sea gas, despite rival econ. zone claims

Terrorism and conflict	India	Chhattisgarh deploys new energy measures after Maoist attack disrupts NMDC operations
Terrorism and conflict	Nigeria	Shell closes 200,000 bpd offshore platform following attack, as MEND declares ceasefire

Energy security	Iraq	Govt. offers oil majors US$500m tech. support contracts to boost oil output by 600,000 bpd
Energy security	Saudi Arabia	Govt. hosts energy summit, increases oil production 500,000 bpd in response to rising prices

Corporate governance	Belgium	EC issues statement of objections over alleged collusion between GDF/E.ON to raise prices

Macroeconomics and development	Sri Lanka	UNDP report says pervasive small-scale corruption a major brake to human development in Asia
Macroeconomics and development	Canada	BOC says core inflation not a reliable policy guide, as sovereign funds offer rescue capital

Supply chain risk	India	Primark axes three suppliers in Tamil Nadu after BBC documentary reveals use of child labour

Climate change	Netherlands	Global CO₂ emissions up 3.1% in 2007, with 8% increase in China driven by coal use

Natural hazards	US	Feed prices jump 60% as a result of Midwest flood damage amid global meat price inflation
Natural hazards	Global	Natural hazards update - US, Philippines, Guatemala, India, China, Greece, Japan

Environment and natural resources	US	Ice melting faster in 2008 despite cold winter, increasing risk of ice-free Arctic by 2013

Societal risk	India	Strike by ethnic Gurkhas in Darjeeling State costs India’s tea industry US$475,000 per day

Pandemics and public health	China	Beijing grants permission for opening of US FDA safety inspection offices in three cities
Pandemics and public health	Global	Avian influenza update - Pakistan, Indonesia

Science and technology	US	Pfizer/Ranbaxy settle 5-year patent dispute over US sales of generic version of Lipitor

Global Risks Portfolio

Global Risks Forecast

Issue 56 | 12 June 2008 – 25 June 2008